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Statistical Probabilities- Observed Turtle Takes

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    Posted: 06 August 2018 at 9:00am
Statistical Probabilities-

Self-reported Turtle Takes in the NC Division of Marine Fisheries Independent Gillnet Sampling program are shown below.

Where are the on-board and alternative platform observations for the same time and areas under terms of the ITP?

How many self-reported takes from the Commercial sector?

Those sampling boats are just plain "unlucky" or there are a pile of turtles around that are not being reported...self-reported by the commercial sector and from the Division's own observation program.

Something smells rotten.

Looks like the recreational sector is doing a great job- 








You smart guys out there jump on in here and ask the Division for the data showing the amount of EFFORT they spent on independent gillnet sampling...trips, yards set, hours set, etc

...then compare that to the Trip Ticket data for the same areas for commercial effort....

...then compare that to alternative platform and on-board observations...

How many observations?....independent sampling, alternative platform and on-board

How many encounters?...actual recorded takes independent sampling, alternative platform and on-board 

Compare weeks or months of data.

Use simple coin toss analogy or simple non-parametric test to validate.

At what point is beyond a reasonable doubt established?

Three analyses- independent sampling vs self-report, independent sampling vs on-board platform and independent sampling vs alternative platform

Maybe one of the grad student at UNC will jump on this...woops...not!  There go those CRFL grants if one of our research universities tackles this issue.

Maybe the MFC needs a motion of no confidence and breach of public trust against the Division for it's inability to meet the Terms of the ITP. 



Edited by Rick - 06 August 2018 at 12:12pm
fiogf49gjkf0d
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 August 2018 at 6:12pm
...and the beat goes on-


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TomM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 August 2018 at 6:40pm
They know we know everyone knows. At this point there should be no ITP! Supposed to be verifiable data.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TomM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 August 2018 at 7:04pm
And I still fail to understand why rec license pay for all this crap.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 August 2018 at 8:25am


I'll note here that Management Unit B and D1, where the "Western Pamlico Sound" and "Beaufort/Down East" takes in the DMF sampling program occurred, are closed to large mesh gillnetting. Unit B closed via proclamation on May 18, 2018.  D1 closed via proclamation M-10-2017 on May 8, 2017.


Where are all the commercial gillnet self-reported takes in the open areas?  Where are the observed takes under the terms of the ITP?

There are a heck of a lot of turtles around to have this many caught in the Division's own independent gillnet surveys and to have this many boat strikes.






Edited by Rick - 27 August 2018 at 9:00am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jtoler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 August 2018 at 9:26am
Perhaps this could be a talking point with the politicians. Show it to them, then sit back and watch to see if the light bulb will go off. Of course once they realize what has been happening and they bring it to the attention of the DMF or DEQ, or any other "D" office, it will be explained away with the "we need to scientifically study this information, and that will take 10 years" reply. 



Edited by jtoler - 27 August 2018 at 7:24pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kshivar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 August 2018 at 10:45am
Only a moron would believe comms are gonna report anything that might affect their ability to kill everything swimming. Their nets are pure and only catch targeted species.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote chriselk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 August 2018 at 5:17pm
Originally posted by kshivar kshivar wrote:

Only a moron would believe comms are gonna report anything that might affect their ability to kill everything swimming. Their nets are pure and only catch targeted species.

Self reported turtles (in the absence of an observer) are NOT counted against the number allowed in the ITP.  Only turtles counted on trips with an observer on board.  To their credit, this point has been hammered by DMF in their communications.



The above comments are my personal opinion and do not represent those of any organizations or agencies I may be a member of.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kshivar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 August 2018 at 5:51pm
I understand that but you are missing my point.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bread Man 1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 August 2018 at 7:40am
Self reported would still be on that list. 7 net boats this am here, not one observer on board. made it a point to get close enough to see. 2 fisherman on almost all setting 2000 yards. And this is a small small area. Nowhere for a turtle to hide. DMF had no issue catching turtles here. They catch plenty.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bakesta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 August 2018 at 9:55am
Amazing!

After reading this I must ask the following.   

Would it be correct to say that according to the official record, DMF netters have killed more turtles this year than commercial netters have killed?


Either way - it sure looks like NC is not complying with the ITP.   But as always - nobody who can fix the problem wants it fixed.Angry







Edited by bakesta - 28 August 2018 at 9:56am
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