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Deja vu all over again- weakfish

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    Posted: 13 February 2017 at 10:27am
I was looking for a file and found this thread that I had saved from 2013 as it had some good references. 

We're still fighting the same battle almost four years later.  How many billion croaker, spot and weakfish have died in the last four years-  two BILLION?

Maybe the 2017 MFC will take substantial steps this week towards protecting our economically important fin and forage species.

Cwilli wrote-
So what scientific data has BW brought forward?

Baitwaster wrote-

You're kidding right?

Name one other person that posts as many links as I do to independent, scientific data to back up my points or dispute regurgitated opinion.

E.g., I have posted on numerous occasions the assessment of the ASMFC weakfish technical committee that extensive analysis suggest at p<0.0001 to the theory of predation as reason for the coast-wide decline of weakfish.

Brown's studies were simply characterization studies. Identify, count and weigh.

Folks on here have taken it and extrapolated, imputed, interpolated, speculated, cyphered and carried many, many naughts and elevated it to mythical proportions.

Very nice and important study

Verses the weakfish predation theory analysis, a portion of which presented below.

Since the index-based approach produced 1982-1998 ages 1+ F and weakfish stock biomass estimates that were similar to those over the converged portion (1982-1998) of the 2006 VPA, this approach was used to update ages 1+ F and stock biomass through 2008 using the recreational private boat cpue, as well as New Jersey and Delaware trawl indices. In addition, ages 1+ surplus production estimates were derived from 1981 to 2008 from which steady-state overfishing (Fmsy, Bmsy) thresholds were derived for Atlantic coast weakfish. Third, the age aggregated (ages 1+) Steele and Henderson (1984) (S-H) production model was updated through 2008 to further examine the joint effects of fishing and predation from striped bass (Morone saxatilus) and spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias). The results from the S-H model were also used to estimate equilibrium and non-equilibrium Fmsy and Bmsy thresholds. Fourth, to provide a more thorough examination of the Predation Hypothesis, additional candidate predators such as bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) and summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) were also considered as candidate predators on weakfish, especially since both finfish predators have risen sharply inshore along the Atlantic coast after 1998.

Finally, environmental disturbances have been proposed as a major process governing shifts in finfish production and recruitment (Hollowed et al 2000b), so environmental factors such as decadal shifts in mean sea surface water temperature and deviations in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index were also examined as potential explanatory variables.

The preponderance of statistical evidence given here supports the Predation Hypothesis nvolving enhanced predation by striped bass and spiny dogfish as the primary factor behind the recent and unexpected decline in weakfish productivity. Statistical evidence in support of the Predation Hypothesis consists of a significant (P<0.0001) inverse correlation between declining weakfish biomass and surplus production from1999 to 2008 and striped bass and spiny dogfish abundance from 1982 to 2004. Striped bass abundance along the Atlantic coast rose 10 fold from

1994 to 2006 (Kahn 2005), although the 2008 striped bass abundance estimate fell by over 40% since 2006. Similarly, spiny dogfish abundance has increased 10 fold since 1999 and has remained high thereafter. During this recent period (1999-2008)of declining weakfish productivity, fishing mortality (FW) and discard mortality (Fdisc) rates remained low and relatively stable, indicating that the recent drop in weakfish productivity did not coincide with rising exploitation. The strong positive correlation (Pearson r = 0.91, P <0.0001) between the recent rise in weakfish juvenile mortality (Z0) and rising striped bass and spiny dogfish abundance further suggests that the recent emergence of a weakfish recruitment bottleneck atage 0 was largely due to enhanced predation by these two finfish predators. By contrast, discard mortality rates on small (< age 2) weakfish remained low and stable after 1999 during which juvenile mortality (Z0) rose steadily. Third, the residual patterns in all Logistics and Gompertz model runs that included only fishing effects (landings) produced inordinately low overfishing thresholds (Fmsy, Bmsy), poor precision around the estimates, and the residuals exhibited a

pronounced serial correlation over time, clearly indicating model misspecification. However, when the predation term (Tpred), reflecting the joint predation by striped bass and spiny dogfish, was added to the models, the fit of the models to weakfish surplus production and biomass dramatically improved, the precision and magnitude of Fmsy and Bmsy rose to more plausible levels (Fmsy > 0.45), and, most importantly, the direction of the residuals over time shifted to a more random pattern and were therefore free of model misspecification.



Rick Wrote-
BW, From my personal observations, you tend to cherry pick data to support your position leaving out the caveats and disclaimers that often accompany that data in the study.

If you have 25,000 chickens in a house and a fox is stealing one per night, you'll loose 42 chickens in the time it takes to grow-out and market that house. What if you had a 25-chickens in a house? Yes, that's an exaggerated point.

Weakfish numbers are so severely depressed that predation by stripers and dogfish might be a problem statistically, but is the issue too many predators or not enough prey?

The study you quote also clearly states that the effects of shrimp trawl bycatch were not factored into any of the statistical calculations. If a 0-Age Class bottleneck, blamed on predation, is the problem, how does shrimp trawl bycatch not significantly change the calculations should it be included? Does it change the conclusion?

Given the above, how can you project with p< 0.0001 that the decline in weakfish is due to predation from stripers, dogfish, bluefish and summer flounder?

The NMFS says bycatch is important-

"Failure to include all components of the catch (landings and bycatch) may have important implications for the results. If bycatch is primarily juvenile fish, then failure to account for them adequately will result in underestimates of fishing mortality on these age groups.

Underestimating young fish bycatch may have significant consequences for the calculation of stock abundance and biomass at older ages. The overall fit of assessment models may improve if bycatch of young fish is included, particularly if they result in significant mortality rates for these age groups."

http://www.seagrantfish.lsu.edu/pdfs/brds/bycatchplan.pdf

The Pamlico Sound is possibly the weakfish nursery area for the the east coast and/or that subpopulations exist, i.e. Pamlico Sound may have it's own subpopulation.


"Investigations of weakfish population structure along the US Atlantic coast have been undertaken through tagging, meristic, morphological, life history, genetic and otolith chemistry. The conclusions reached are conflicting. While Crawford et al. (1988), Graves et al. (1992) and Cordes and Graves (2003) did not detect genetic differentiation within the weakfish population, Chapman et al. (unpublished report) found that weakfish are made up of a series of overlapping stocks, without complete panmixia. Non-genetic studies found evidence of existence of multiple weakfish sub-populations (e.g., Nesbit 1954; Shepherd & Grimes 1983, 1984; Scoles 1990) or important spatial structure of the weakfish population (Thorrold et al. 1998, 2001). Mark-recapture, meristic, morphological and life-history studies (e.g., review by Crawford et al. 1988) indicated that weakfish could be partitioned into sub-stocks…"

http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/publications/crd/crd0915/pdfs/weakfish.pdf

 

The conclusions of the study are questionable.

Sea Byrd Wrote-

And, as Mr. Harvey once said, "Is the rest of the story"

http://www.eregulations.com/newjersey/fishing/saltwater2011/archive_2010/what-happened-to-weakfish/

taking a stock down to critical levels (weafish) along with many other prey species (herring, menhaden, croaker, spot) all at historically very low numbers, ALL BY OVERFISHING. Thenwhat else can you expect than a continued collapse of that fishery due to "natural" predatation. IMHO right now we are approaching a critical point of imbalance in the natural self sustainment of our fisheries. For some, like the weakfish and river herring, it may allready be too late. One thing for sure, without drastic changes in our current way of doing things, we ARE headed for that doom and gloom and chicken little might be vendicated..........

Bakesta Wrote-


"The conclusions of the study are questionable."

LOL - now that's the understatement of the year!!!! A bunch of computer modeling where they made the outcome fit the theory. And now we have people saying that it MUST be predation because it has a p value of 0.000000000001.

computer modeling at its worst.

and the funny thing about the predation theory is that those who push it ignore the hundreds of millions of forage fish killed in bycatch. i guess that wouldn't support the goal.

By the way - do you know why they didn't include NC's shrimp trawl bycatch????

BECAUSE IT RUINED THEIR MODEL!!!!


Baitwaster wrote-


This is not a "study", but an f'n 400-page peer-reviewed stock assessment based on 25 years of data.

So would you like to produce your credentials and rationale as to how you can pass judgement that the "conclusions of the study are questionable."

Rick Wrote-


BW,

The "study", "paper", "analysis" or whatever name you wish to quibble over is flawed. I made my points. Why don't you address my points? Bakesta made his points. Why don't you address his points?

The single most important point is that the "assessment" failed to take into account the impact of killing juvenile weakfish in the NC shrimp trawling industy. There is not conclusive evidence that NC has it's own subpopulation, but there isn't conclusive evidence against it either. How do you project biomass without including the impact on 0-Age Class from shrimp trawling?

This is one point the assessment did get right!

C6.2.8 North Carolina DMF Pamlico Sound Juvenile Trawl Survey

The North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries conducts a juvenile trawl survey in Pamlico Sound. ...the survey occurs within a prime weakfish spawning/nursery ground and provides the only recruitment index in the southern portion of the range.

This caveat is also a good one.

The Panel noted that when a resource is in a depleted condition, such as in the case of weakfish, a number of factors can be responsible for maintaining the stock in the depressed state. Examples in the literature of “predator pits” preventing recovery in predator - prey models have been reported (Bundy and Fanning 2005). There is a continuing debate in Atlantic Canada on the role of grey seals maintaining Atlantic cod at their low level of abundance (Chouinard et al. 2005, Trzcinski et al. 2006). However, the mechanisms maintaining the prey species at low levels of abundance and the mechanism that caused the reduced abundance in the first place are not necessarily the same thing. Thus, for weakfish, predation may be maintaining the population at low levels, without having contributed to the original decline of the stock.

And Bernie, it's not just me that has questions of validity-

ASMFC Weakfish Technical Committee Report- Weakfish Management Board: February 5, 2009

"...the biomass models are unreliable, and SCAM uses

same data as VPA. So what is left? Weakfish has become the ultimate example of “data poor” after the last 2 reviews. The data has been shot down as unacceptable and ASMFC is worse off now than prior to the last assessment. Back to the drawing board?"

Baitwaster wrote-

Again your credentials to allow you to make this statement. Some pretty smart, edumocated folks on the technical committee

Contributors

Principal Authors

Jeffrey Brust, New Jersey Division of Fish and Wildlife,

Stock Assessment Subcommittee Chair

Dr. Vic Crecco, Connecticut Bureau of Marine Fisheries

Jim Uphoff, Maryland Department of Natural Resources

Lee Paramore, North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries

Dr. Des Kahn, Delaware Division of Fish and Wildlife

Dr. Yan Jiao, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Russ Allen, New Jersey Division of Fish and Wildlife,

Technical Committee Chair

Nichola Meserve, Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission,Species Coordinator


Additional reviewers

Greg Skomal, Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries

Brian Murphy, Rhode Island Division of Fish and Wildlife

Christina Grahn, New York Department of Environmental Conservation

Ellen Cosby, Potomac River Fishery Commission

Dr. James Kirkley, Virginia Institute of Marine Science

Joe Cimino, Virginia Marine Resources Commission

Dr. Charlie Wenner, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

Erin Levesque, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

Eric Robillard, Georgia Department of Natural Resources

Joseph Munyandorero, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

Dr. Doug Vaughan, Southeast Fishery Science Center

Wilson Laney, US Fish and Wildlife Service

Patrick Campfield, Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission


Ray Brown wrote-

Another area you guys may not be considering is that juvenile croaker and spot are also forage fish for the predators you mention.

NC allows a huge number of them to be taken out of the ecosystem every year at an age where they are prime forage putting additional pressure on every other species that size.

It all ties together according to one of the members of the ASMFC weakfish technical committees who has shared his thoughts with me recently.


Baitwaster Wrote-

Ray not sure what you mean by "taken out of the ecosystem. " They are returned, tho not in the best shape . I.e., they are not iced down and removed from the water. Many are, in fact, converted into an easier meal for the predators as Chuck can attest chasing the trawlers outside.


Ray Brown Wrote-

But not for the same fish at the same place.

I'd suggest you talk to Louis on this one Bernie. He reminded me of a move in some Canadian province where there was a great push to restore a simple forage fish that had disappeared so they managed for its return and it did return.

What they didn't expect is that when the forage fish returned the predators rebounded too.

And then he went on to tell me that spot and croaker are two of the main forage fish in our estuaries for numerous species of finfish.

With that in mind one looks at the bycatch amounts and it appears we "growth overfish" spot and croaker in our inland waters every year if you go by that definition of removing juvenile fish before they are sexually mature.

And according to the state regulations on the definition of a primary nursery then where the red drum lay their eggs should be designated as a primary nursery. It certainly says that where the eggs enter the estuary is a primary nursery.


Bakesta Wrote-

You've now turned into Buddy Roe. That comment is that ridiculous.

As for apologizing to the ASMFC - don't think so - i kind of got an apology/explanation because they put out such a worthless model that most knew was absolutely off base. keep telling us about that p value.

AND - they knew full well about the NC shrimp bycatch problem. Brown's study was not a news flash to anyone. They chose to ignore NC bycatch because to not ignore it would have forced them to put out a report that would have put a bullseye right on our shrimp trawlers.

Keep trying to cast doubt - you're helping our case.


Baitwaster Wrote-

And another load for the BS lagoon.

So you have decided these folks, from across the eastern seaboard, charged with managing weakfish to recovery, intentionally produced a carppy model to protect NC's shrimp trawlers
?

Principal Authors

Jeffrey Brust, New Jersey Division of Fish and Wildlife,

Stock Assessment Subcommittee Chair

Dr. Vic Crecco, Connecticut Bureau of Marine Fisheries

Jim Uphoff, Maryland Department of Natural Resources

Lee Paramore, North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries

Dr. Des Kahn, Delaware Division of Fish and Wildlife

Dr. Yan Jiao, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Russ Allen, New Jersey Division of Fish and Wildlife,

Technical Committee Chair

Nichola Meserve, Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission,Species Coordinator


Additional reviewers

Greg Skomal, Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries

Brian Murphy, Rhode Island Division of Fish and Wildlife

Christina Grahn, New York Department of Environmental Conservation

Ellen Cosby, Potomac River Fishery Commission

Dr. James Kirkley, Virginia Institute of Marine Science

Joe Cimino, Virginia Marine Resources Commission

Dr. Charlie Wenner, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

Erin Levesque, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

Eric Robillard, Georgia Department of Natural Resources

Joseph Munyandorero, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

Dr. Doug Vaughan, Southeast Fishery Science Center

Wilson Laney, US Fish and Wildlife Service

Patrick Campfield, Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission

I'm done. Don't get my waders until November and it's getting deep.

Your case? Don't be surprised if you get a Thank You card from Sean McKeon.


marker39 Wrote-

I doubt Sean McKeon has any "thank you" cards.

Probably got a drawer full of "F you" cards though.




Edited by Rick - 13 February 2017 at 11:27am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BaitWaster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 11:58am

Stock Status

Weakfish

The most recent weakfish stock assessment was peer reviewed and approved for management in 2016. Results of the assessment show the weakfish stock is depleted and has been for the past 13 years. Under the new reference points proposed in the assessment, the stock is considered depleted when the stock is below a spawning stock biomass (SSB) threshold of 30% (15.17 million pounds). In 2014, SSB was 5.62 million pounds. The assessment found that overfishing is not occurring as total mortality in 2014 (1.11) was below the threshold of 1.36. The assessment indicates that natural mortality has been increasing since the mid‐1990s, from approximately 0.16 in the early 1980’s to an average of 0.93 from 2007‐2014. Therefore, even though fishing mortality has been at low levels in recent years, the weakfish population has been experiencing very high levels of total mortality which has prevented the stock from recovering. The assessment does indicate some positive signs in the weakfish stock in the most recent years, with a slight increase in SSB and total abundance; however, the stock is still well below the SSB threshold. 

http://www.asmfc.org/species/weakfish

http://www.asmfc.org/uploads/file/5751b3db2016WeakfishStockAssessment_PeerReviewReport_May2016.pdf

Page 186 -

Figure 5.1.2. Estimates of shrimp trawl bycatch compared with total directed removals.

Page 62:

There was only a weak relationship between the weight of weakfish in a sample and the weight of shrimp (Figure 5.1.1) so the WTC chose to use a bycatch-per-unit-effort approach. The annual BCPUE (Table 5.1.7) was multiplied by the estimates of shrimping effort in the south Atlantic from the South Atlantic Shrimp system and state trip-ticket programs as was done for recent south Atlantic Spanish mackerel and red snapper assessments (SEDAR 2012). To extend the BCPUE time-series past 2005, the relationship between BCPUE and the SEAMAP index of abundance was used to estimate BCPUE from the SEAMAP index from 1990 –2004. The intent of this approach was to avoid applying a constant BCPUE when BCPUE is most likely driven by changes in abundance, particularly of young-of-year weakfish. However, the relationship between the SEAMAP index and the BCPUE was not strong, introducing additional error into the calculations.

The final estimates of weakfish bycatch were very small relative to total commercial removals (Figure 5.1.2). In addition, the length distribution of the weakfish samples indicated the catch was predominantly composed of age-0 fish, which were not included in the population model (Figure 5.1.3). For these reasons, as well as the high uncertainty in the data set coming from the low sample size, the lack of mandatory coverage prior to 2008, and the uncertainty in extrapolating the BCPUE further into the past, the estimates of shrimp trawl bycatch were not included in the assessment.

The WTC also explored the NC DMF shrimp observer dataset, which had much better sample size for the years in which it was active, but only covered one year of inshore sampling and one year of offshore sampling, as well as only covering the waters of NC. They found similar rates of weakfish in their sample, with about 2% of the total catch by weight made up of weakfish in the inshore samples. Because of the limited temporal and spatial range of this dataset, estimates of total bycatch were not developed from it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CapRandy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 12:56pm
Well little more net time and weakfish will be no more in NC
Murder is killing but all killing is not murder
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 1:02pm
Bernie- 

Were those Pamlico Sound studies or ocean studies?

If ocean studies, just for NC or for all Southeastern shrimp trawl states?

If all Southeastern shrimp trawl states, is there a comparative equal to what SC, GA and FLA allow versus what NC allows?




Edited by Rick - 13 February 2017 at 1:35pm
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Entire section re: shrimp trawling in the 2016 Weakfish stock assessment and peer review. 

http://www.asmfc.org/uploads/file/5751b3db2016WeakfishStockAssessment_PeerReviewReport_May2016.pdf

PP 61-62

 


5.1.13 SEFSC Shrimp Trawl Observer Program


(My bolds)

Juvenile weakfish are caught as bycatch in the south Atlantic shrimp trawl fishery. Scott-Denton et al.(2012) found that weakfish made up 0.9% of the total catch (shrimp, bycatch, and debris) by weight on observed trips from 2008-2010 in the south Atlantic.

To quantify potential removals from this fishery, the Weakfish TC obtained data from the SEFSC Galveston’s lab observer program. The observer program conducts bycatch monitoring on shrimp vessels targeting either penaeid or rock shrimp in the south Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.  Observer coverage goes back to 1998, but did not become mandatory until 2008 in the south Atlantic. Prior to that, the database includes both voluntary bycatch monitoring trips and BRD/TED testing trips.

The dataset was subset to include only bycatch monitoring trips (both voluntary and mandatory) that occurred in the south Atlantic. This resulted in 516 trips that conducted 2,464 tows from 2005-2014 (Table 5.1.6). Of those trips, 167 observed bycatch of weakfish. Additional trips observed “Cynoscion spp.” bycatch, but did not record the catch to the individual species level; “Cynoscion spp.” likely included weakfish and silver, spotted, and sand seatrout.

There was only a weak relationship between the weight of weakfish in a sample and the weight of shrimp (Figure 5.1.1) so the WTC chose to use a bycatch-per-unit-effort approach. The annual BCPUE (Table 5.1.7) was multiplied by the estimates of shrimping effort in the south Atlantic from the South Atlantic Shrimp system and state trip-ticket programs as was done for recent south Atlantic Spanish mackerel and red snapper assessments (SEDAR 2012). To extend the BCPUE time-series past 2005, the relationship between BCPUE and the SEAMAP index of abundance was used to estimate BCPUE from the SEAMAP index from 1990 –2004. The intent of this approach was to avoid applying a constant BCPUE when BCPUE is most likely driven by changes in abundance, particularly of young-of-year weakfish. However, the relationship between the SEAMAP index and the BCPUE was not strong, introducing additional error into the calculations.

The final estimates of weakfish bycatch were very small relative to total commercial removals (Figure 5.1.2). In addition, the length distribution of the weakfish samples indicated the catch was predominantly composed of age-0 fish, which were not included in the population model (Figure 5.1.3). For these reasons, as well as the high uncertainty in the data set coming from the low sample size, the lack of mandatory coverage prior to 2008, and the uncertainty in extrapolating the BCPUE further into the past, the estimates of shrimp trawl bycatch were not included in the assessment.

The WTC also explored the NC DMF shrimp observer dataset, which had much better sample size for the years in which it was active, but only covered one year of inshore sampling and one year of offshore sampling, as well as only covering the waters of NC. They found similar rates of weakfish in their sample, with about 2% of the total catch by weight made up of weakfish in the inshore samples. Because of the limited temporal and spatial range of this dataset, estimates of total bycatch were not developed from it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 1:55pm
I'm really not going to spend much time addressing your points as I consider them poorly supported.

From my best understanding-  the studies referenced were all states and mainly ocean observations.

That is not what I'd call credible representative data given that
  • Kevin Brown found that weakfish comprise about 7% of total bycatch in the Pamlico Sound.
  • NC and states north are the prime nursery areas for weakfish on the Atlantic coast, not SC, GA and Fla.

...and NC's Pamlico Sound is considered

C6.2.8 North Carolina DMF Pamlico Sound Juvenile Trawl Survey

The North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries conducts a juvenile trawl survey in Pamlico Sound. ...the survey occurs within a prime weakfish spawning/nursery ground and provides the only recruitment index in the southern portion of the range.


Edited by Rick - 13 February 2017 at 2:06pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BaitWaster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 2:36pm
Originally posted by Rick Rick wrote:

I'm really not going to spend much time addressing your points as I consider them poorly supported.

From my best understanding-  This was all states and mainly ocean observations.

That is not what I'd call credible data given that
  • Kevin Brown found that weakfish comprise about 7% of total bycatch in the Pamlico Sound.
  • NC and states north are the prime nursery areas for weakfish on the Atlantic coast, not SC, GA and Fla.

Agree with the 2% estimate as it was 6.34% in the Pamlico trawl characterization study and 2.08% in the Carteret to Brunswick Co. ocean study.

Poorly supported? I simply used the most recent ASMFC weakfish stock assessment and assumed this technical committee and the peer reviewers from the east coast knows just a tad about about weakfish and population modeling and dynamics. 

The year-of-young vary so much, so how does the model accommodate a single study in a single year in a single state with 1.2% coverage? 

And the conundrum is the value really needed is what is the percentage removal?  And absolute removals, if it could be reasonably approximated, would have to be reduced by the expected natural morality of these age-0 fish, which is very high due to predation, starvation and environmental conditions.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bakesta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 3:00pm
We've been through this before but i'll explain again.


That committee of geniuses that you keep worshiping did not consider NC shrimp trawl bycatch because it ruined their model.

And when asked what would happen if those 20-30 million fingerling weakfish were NOT killed every year, an expert said that it would be expected to make a significant difference in the adult population.

And then they added - "it's a North Carolina problem" and basically said that the committee would not touch it until NC fixed it themselves.


SO - keep casting doubt BW - that seems to be your only goal.  If only you wanted to protect fish as much as commercial income............................ you'd have never been allowed to be on those ACs.LOL



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 4:07pm
The old denominator ruse. 

I got a 8-week old lab puppy on Friday afternoon.  Sunday afternoon he was already standing at the backdoor to go out to use the bathroom and already standing at the garage door when he was hungry knowing that his bag of food is on the stoop.  He has quickly learned one action puts either the wife or me into quick response, the other requires a little whining that is not always successful. 

  • If only people's intentions could be as pure.
  • If only people's intelligence could be a high.
  • If only people's common sense prevails.
  “A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.” Thomas Paine, Common Sense

I hope that after forty-five years of studying the issue, forty years of those with informed opinions not driven by personal profit knowing something must be done, twenty years of the public asking for it and ten years of the public demanding it that protecting our important nursery areas time is finally here.



Edited by Rick - 13 February 2017 at 5:35pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CapRandy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 4:51pm
Its always someone elses problem
Murder is killing but all killing is not murder
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BaitWaster Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 6:05pm
Have no idea why I jumped in on the trawling issue.Confused  I was content to let y'all talking amongst yourself, but was drug back with Rick dragging up something four years old. And there has been another stock assessment since them.

Not about debate here but personal attacks and mutual admiration. 
Originally posted by bakesta bakesta wrote:

We've been through this before but i'll explain again.

That committee of geniuses that you keep worshiping did not consider NC shrimp trawl bycatch because it ruined their model.

And when asked what would happen if those 20-30 million fingerling weakfish were NOT killed every year, an expert said that it would be expected to make a significant difference in the adult population.

And then they added - "it's a North Carolina problem" and basically said that the committee would not touch it until NC fixed it themselves.

SO - keep casting doubt BW - that seems to be your only goal.  If only you wanted to protect fish as much as commercial income............................ you'd have never been allowed to be on those ACs.LOL

With whom on the tech committee did you talk?  You can PM me a name(names) and I will follow up as I just can't believe "it's a NC problem" as weakfish are managed as a coast-wide stock.
Sounds like alternative facts to me.  And the reasons for not using a datapoint with age-0 discards in regional fishery in a complex, longitudinal dataset is explained. 

The weakfish flynet fishery was a NC fishery and a problem and it was banned south of Lookout and we saw a temporary rebound then continued decline. Shrimp trawling was seen as a problem and FEDs/BRDs were required in the mid-nineties to reduce dead discards by 50%. 

Recruitment, age-1 fish, has trended upward the past 7 years, surprising, or not, as striped bass biomass has trended downward but don't put much stock in this.

I'll just ignore your last statement as not worth the keystrokes.

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Well, I have really good days - Ray Wylie
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 6:28pm
Originally posted by BaitWaster BaitWaster wrote:

And the conundrum is the value really needed is what is the percentage removal?  And absolute removals, if it could be reasonably approximated, would have to be reduced by the expected natural morality of these age-0 fish, which is very high due to predation, starvation and environmental conditions.


The #1 predator is the Pamlico Sound shrimp trawler.

Try leaving a few shrimp and juvenile spot, croaker, pinfish, brief squid and menhaden in the sound alive versus dumping them in piles to rot and see what that does for a starvation problem.

...one I’m thinking about, and that is the ecosystem component; particularly for spot, and how important they are as a forage base and what we might be able to do. To me they are just as important for the inshore fishery as menhaden.  Louis Daniel- Chairman ASMFC


Edited by Rick - 13 February 2017 at 6:29pm
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NC Fisheries Management- Motto: Too Little, Too Late, Too Bad   Slogan: Shrimp On! Mission Statement: Enable Commercial Fishing At Any and All Cost, Regardless of Impact to the Resource.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 7:07pm
Originally posted by BaitWaster BaitWaster wrote:

With whom on the tech committee did you talk?  You can PM me a name(names) and I will follow up as I just can't believe "it's a NC problem" as weakfish are managed as a coast-wide stock.  Sounds like alternative facts to me.  And the reasons for not using a datapoint with age-0 discards in regional fishery in a complex, longitudinal dataset is explained. 


LOL 

Is there an emogee for ROTFLMAO?

Here's one of the replies that I got back from the ASMFC, and yes the sender is on your list above.

Not wanting to cause headaches for my compatriots in NC, but I would think you folks might consider coming to a Weakfish Board Meeting to bring up the subject.  Shrimp bycatch was a huge issue at one time and it’s hardly mentioned anymore.  It should be of interest to know what BRDs are being used and where the certification tests are.  And could increased effort or habitat changes countered the reductions. Maybe not in the south, but elsewhere might have an interest.  I doubt the ASMFC is going to be of much help though.  The bycatch issue fell off the weakfish TC radar screen long ago.  The Board has not asked for anything on it in years.  I imagine many of the newer Board members from the mid-Atlantic may not even know what an issue it was.
 





Edited by Rick - 14 February 2017 at 8:42am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TomM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 8:12pm
12 pounds of trout or shrimp- trout everytime. This is way past due. Fly net south of calo was never as a big an issue as Hatteras. Give Pamlico a chance to recover.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Glacierbaze Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 8:24pm
ROFLMAO animated emoticon

Edited by Glacierbaze - 13 February 2017 at 8:24pm
"You can never elevate your own character by stepping on someone else's."

"Never argue with a man who loves the sound of his own voice."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bakesta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 February 2017 at 9:09pm
Originally posted by BaitWaster BaitWaster wrote:

With whom on the tech committee did you talk?  You can PM me a name(names) and I will follow up 



Yeah right  - you'll "follow up"LOL


The most disturbing quote from my source still sticks with me and makes me mad when I think about.

"Shrimp trawl bycatch is a North Carolina problem and it will have to be fixed within North Carolina."  

and that was followed by an explanation something like " nobody was willing to step on anybodies toes over that issue and bla bla bla   it sucks but keep fighting".  They know it's a problem, but it's our problem.

Those committees are almost as screwed up as our ACs as they consider politics first and science second.




"Do the right thing. It will gratify some people and astonish the rest." --- Mark Twain
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 February 2017 at 9:11am
Baitwaster-

Somehow you're way behind on the current status of the latest stock assessment at NCW. 

Debate Club-  LOL Debate left the house several years ago.

Debate is the Defend of Deny, Defend, Deflect, Delay.

This crowd is too "edumacated" to be plied blindly with half-truths, what ifs, might be, most likely and lies to move the clock back to Defend or Deflect.  The NCW crowd is working under our own supplement process to address the status of Delay.  Delay is affecting the long-term viability of several fisheries in critical distress.  We see our supplement meeting temporary management needs until a complete rewrite of FRA-97 brings reasonable management to our fisheries.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 June 2020 at 10:50am

This was such a great and informative thread in light of what the NCCFRG is trying to do, I had to bring it back to the top.


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