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Dew Point: 64.9F
Humidity: 69%
Pressure: 29.94 inches
Wind: NE at 8.1 mph
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Up to the minute NOAA Huricane Info

 

NHC Atlantic
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook -
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 242303
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Maria, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
    Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
    central Atlantic Ocean.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch


  • Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017) - ...TINY LEE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM LAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.3, -49.7 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

  • Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 27 - Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 242031
    TCPAT4
    
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  27
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
    500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    ...TINY LEE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM LAND...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...31.3N 49.7W
    ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM E OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
    near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 49.7 West.  Lee is moving toward
    the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is expected to
    continue during the next 24 hours.  A turn toward the southwest or
    west is expected by early Tuesday.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
    gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
    hours.
    
    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
    (55 km).
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Landsea
    
    


  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 27 - Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT24 KNHC 242031
    TCMAT4
     
    HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
    2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  49.7W AT 24/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT   3 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
    EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
    64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 180SW 120NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  49.7W AT 24/2100Z
    AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  49.9W
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.0N  49.2W
    MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.7N  49.1W
    MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.3N  50.1W
    MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.4N  51.5W
    MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.0N  53.5W
    MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 33.0N  53.0W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 37.0N  49.0W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N  49.7W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER LANDSEA
     
     
    


  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 27 - Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 242031
    TCDAT4
    
    Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  27
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
    500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    Lee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense
    overcast.  SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates
    are all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that
    remains 80 kt.
    
    The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued
    hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low
    vertical shear and warm waters.  However, the HWRF and COAMPS
    dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps
    because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its
    own cold wake in a couple of days.  By day 4 or 5, the environment
    should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee
    and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of
    Hurricane Maria.  The official intensity forecast is in between the
    weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory.
    
    The system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt.  The
    hurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west
    during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets
    re-established north of Lee.  By day 4 the system should recurve
    and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets
    picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track model
    consensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated
    faster toward the northeast by day 5.  The official track
    forecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach.
    
    Lee is a tiny hurricane.  The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical
    storm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the
    center.  The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane
    over time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN
    multi-model scheme.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  24/2100Z 31.3N  49.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
     12H  25/0600Z 31.0N  49.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
     24H  25/1800Z 30.7N  49.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
     36H  26/0600Z 30.3N  50.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
     48H  26/1800Z 30.4N  51.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
     72H  27/1800Z 31.0N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
     96H  28/1800Z 33.0N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
    120H  29/1800Z 37.0N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Landsea
    
    


  • Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27 - Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    
    000
    FONT14 KNHC 242031
    PWSAT4
                                                                        
    HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27                   
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
    2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 
    NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
    ...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER LANDSEA                                                  
    


  • Hurricane Lee Graphics - Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 20:37:49 GMT

    Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 21:22:24 GMT

  • Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017) - ...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 the center of Maria was located near 29.4, -73.0 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

  • Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 35 - Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 242054
    TCPAT5
    
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  35
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
    500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    ...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
    THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...29.4N 73.0W
    ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of North
    Carolina from Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia
    border, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.
    
    A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
    from Cape Lookout northward to Duck.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
    * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
    
    A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
    * Cape Lookout to Duck
    
    Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
    should monitor the progress of Maria.
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
    
    A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
    threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
    coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
    For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
    Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov.
    
    For storm information specific to your area, including possible
    inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
    local National Weather Service forecast office.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
    near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 73.0 West.  Maria is moving
    toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with
    some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.  On
    the forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of
    the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
    gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next
    24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected to begin by Monday night
    or Tuesday.
    
    Maria is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
    to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
    extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
    
    The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA
    reconnaissance aircraft data is 941 mb  (27.79 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
    beginning Tuesday.
    
    STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
    tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
    rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
    expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
    surge occurs at the time of high tide...
    
    Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
    Banks...2 to 4 ft
    
    Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
    and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
    information specific to your area, please see products issued by
    your local National Weather Service forecast office.
    
    SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
    the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
    increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today.  Swells also
    continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
    coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
    These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
    current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
    office for more information.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    


  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 35 - Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 242053
    TCMAT5
    
    HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
    2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH
    CAROLINA FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
    BORDER...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS.
    
    A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
    FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
    * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
    
    A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK
    
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS
    SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
    
    A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
    THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
    COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
    FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
    HURRICANES.GOV.
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  73.0W AT 24/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  941 MB
    EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
    64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
    50 KT.......100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
    34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
    12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 330NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  73.0W AT 24/2100Z
    AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  73.0W
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.3N  73.2W
    MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
    50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
    34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.4N  73.4W
    MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
    50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
    34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N  73.5W
    MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    64 KT... 60NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
    50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
    34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.6N  73.6W
    MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
    34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.0N  73.3W
    MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
    50 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
    34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.8N  71.0W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 37.5N  64.5W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N  73.0W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    
    
    


  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 35 - Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 242057
    TCDAT5
    
    Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  35
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
    500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    Recent reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
    aircraft indicate that Maria's pressure has fallen a few millibars
    since this morning, but there has been little overall change in
    intensity.  A blend of the flight-level and Stepped Frequency
    Radiometer Microwave Radiometer data yields an initial wind
    speed of around 90 kt.  Maria will be traversing warm water and
    remain in a low shear environment during the next day or so, and
    some fluctuations in intensity are possible through Monday.
    After that time, Maria is forecast to move over cooler waters left
    over from Hurricane Jose.  This is likely to result in gradual
    weakening, however Maria is forecast to maintain hurricane status
    through the entire forecast period.
    
    Maria is moving just west of due north or 350/8 kt. The hurricane is
    currently being steered north-northwestward to northward between a
    cut-off low over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over
    the southwestern Atlantic. The forward motion of the hurricane
    should slow down over the next couple of days as a ridge builds to
    the north of the system over the northeastern United States.  After
    72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward and begin to recurve as
    the deep-layer flow turns southwestward ahead of large mid-latitude
    trough that is forecast to move over the Great Lakes region by the
    end of the week.  The latest runs of the dynamical models are fairly
    similar to the previous ones, with the ECMWF along the western side
    of the guidance and the GFS near the eastern edge.  The NHC track
    is between these solutions, and lies west of the various consensus
    aids out of respect for the ECMWF and its ensemble mean.
    
    Since Maria is a large hurricane, the associated tropical-storm-
    force winds could reach a portion of the North Carolina in about 48
    hours.  As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a
    portion of the coast of North Carolina.
    
    KEY MESSAGES:
    
    1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
    U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
    occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical
    Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North
    Carolina.
    
    2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the
    North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a
    Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North
    Carolina Outer Banks.
    
    3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
    southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
    Atlantic coast today.  These swells will likely cause dangerous
    surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of
    the week.  For more information, please monitor information from
    your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  24/2100Z 29.4N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
     12H  25/0600Z 30.3N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
     24H  25/1800Z 31.4N  73.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
     36H  26/0600Z 32.5N  73.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
     48H  26/1800Z 33.6N  73.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
     72H  27/1800Z 35.0N  73.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
     96H  28/1800Z 35.8N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
    120H  29/1800Z 37.5N  64.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    


  • Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35 - Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    
    000
    FONT15 KNHC 242054
    PWSAT5
                                                                        
    HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35                 
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
    2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
    29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
     
    NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
     
    PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
     
    BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
     
    NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
     
    NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
     
    MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
     
    ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
     
    NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
     
    NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
     
    NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
     
    TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
     
    NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
     
    ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
     
    PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
     
    ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)   1(16)
     
    BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
     
    DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   X(16)
     
    ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
     
    WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
     
    CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   6(22)   X(22)
     
    OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   6(28)   1(29)
    OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
     
    PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   4(20)   X(20)
     
    WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  19(26)   6(32)   X(32)
    WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
     
    CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
     
    RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   3(19)   X(19)
     
    DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
     
    NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)  20(32)   6(38)   X(38)
    NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
    NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)  21(35)   6(41)   X(41)
    NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
    NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)  23(39)   7(46)   X(46)
    OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
    OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
     
    ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  12(21)  23(44)   7(51)   X(51)
    ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
    ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
     
    GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
     
    RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   2(15)   X(15)
     
    ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)  13(24)   4(28)   X(28)
     
    CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   7( 7)  15(22)  25(47)  20(67)   5(72)   X(72)
    CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   5(27)   X(27)
    CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
     
    FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   8(15)   2(17)   X(17)
     
    CHERRY PT NC   34  X   5( 5)   8(13)  16(29)  17(46)   5(51)   X(51)
    CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
    CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
     
    NEW RIVER NC   34  1   6( 7)  11(18)  20(38)  18(56)   5(61)   X(61)
    NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   2(14)   X(14)
    NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   6( 6)  10(16)  17(33)  17(50)   5(55)   X(55)
    MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
    MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
     
    SURF CITY NC   34  X   5( 5)   7(12)  10(22)  13(35)   4(39)   X(39)
    SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
     
    WILMINGTON NC  34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   7(18)  12(30)   3(33)   X(33)
     
    BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   5( 5)   6(11)   7(18)  11(29)   3(32)   X(32)
     
    FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
     
    LITTLE RIVER   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)   9(21)   2(23)   X(23)
     
    MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   7(17)   2(19)   X(19)
     
    GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)
     
    CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
     
    BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
    


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